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Science 20 August 1993:
Vol. 261. no. 5124, pp. 1026 - 1029
DOI: 10.1126/science.261.5124.1026
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Articles

A Two-Tiered Approach to Long-Range Climate Forecasting

L. Bengtsson 1, U. Schlese 1, E. Roeckner 1, M. Latif 1, T. P. Barnett 2, and N. Graham 2

1 Max-Planck-Institut fur Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany
2 Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California at San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093

Long-range global climate forecasts were made by use of a model for predicting a tropical Pacific sea-surface temperature (SST) in tandem with an atmospheric general circulation model. The SST is predicted first at long lead times into the future. These ocean forecasts are then used to force the atmospheric model and so produce climate forecasts at lead times of the SST forecasts. Prediction of seven large climatic events of the 1970s to 1990s by this technique are in good agreement with observations over many regions of the globe.

Submitted on April 6, 1993
Accepted on June 8, 1993


THIS ARTICLE HAS BEEN CITED BY OTHER ARTICLES:
Simulations of Atmospheric Variability Induced by Sea Surface Temperatures and Implications for Global Warming.
A. Kumar, A. Leetmaa, and M. Ji (1994)
Science 266, 632-634
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Science. ISSN 0036-8075 (print), 1095-9203 (online)