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Coral Reefs Under Rapid Climate Change and Ocean Acidification
O. Hoegh-Guldberg,1*P. J. Mumby,2A. J. Hooten,3R. S. Steneck,4P. Greenfield,5E. Gomez,6C. D. Harvell,7P. F. Sale,8A. J. Edwards,9K. Caldeira,10N. Knowlton,11C. M. Eakin,12R. Iglesias-Prieto,13N. Muthiga,14R. H. Bradbury,15A. Dubi,16M. E. Hatziolos17
Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is expected to exceed500 parts per million and global temperatures to rise by atleast 2°C by 2050 to 2100, values that significantly exceedthose of at least the past 420,000 years during which most extantmarine organisms evolved. Under conditions expected in the 21stcentury, global warming and ocean acidification will compromisecarbonate accretion, with corals becoming increasingly rareon reef systems. The result will be less diverse reef communitiesand carbonate reef structures that fail to be maintained. Climatechange also exacerbates local stresses from declining waterquality and overexploitation of key species, driving reefs increasinglytoward the tipping point for functional collapse. This reviewpresents future scenarios for coral reefs that predict increasinglyserious consequences for reef-associated fisheries, tourism,coastal protection, and people. As the International Year ofthe Reef 2008 begins, scaled-up management intervention anddecisive action on global emissions are required if the lossof coral-dominated ecosystems is to be avoided.
1 Centre for Marine Studies, The University of Queensland, St. Lucia, 4072 Queensland, Australia. 2 Marine Spatial Ecology Laboratory, School of BioSciences, University of Exeter, Prince of Wales Road, Exeter EX4 4PS, UK. 3 AJH Environmental Services, 4900 Auburn Avenue, Suite 201, Bethesda, MD 20814, USA. 4 University of Maine, School of Marine Sciences, Darling Marine Center, Walpole, ME 04573, USA. 5 The Chancellery, University of Queensland, St. Lucia, 4072 Queensland, Australia. 6 Marine Science Institute, University of the Philippines, Diliman, Quezon City, Philippines. 7 Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, E321 Corson Hall, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA. 8 International Network on Water, Environment and Health, United Nations University, 50 Main Street East, Hamilton, Ontario L8N 1E9, Canada. 9 School of Biology, Ridley Building, University of Newcastle, Newcastle upon Tyne, NE17RU, UK. 10 Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution of Washington, 260 Panama Street, Stanford, CA 94305, USA. 11 National Museum of Natural History, Smithsonian Institution, Washington, DC 20013, USA. 12 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Coral Reef Watch, E/RA31, 1335 East West Highway, Silver Spring, MD 20910–3226, USA. 13 Unidad Académica Puerto Morelos, Instituto de Ciencias del Mar y Limnología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Apdo. Postal 1152, Cancún 77500 QR, México. 14 Wildlife Conservation Society, 2300 Southern Boulevard, Bronx, New York, NY 10460, USA. 15 Resource Management in Asia-Pacific Program, Australian National University, Canberra, 0200 Australia. 16 Institute of Marine Sciences, University of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. 17 Environment Department, MC5-523, The World Bank, 1818 H Street, NW, Washington, DC20433, USA.
* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: oveh{at}uq.edu.au
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In Science Magazine
LETTERS
Andrew Baird, Jeffrey A. Maynard;, O. Hoegh-Guldberg, P. J. Mumby, A. J. Hooten, R. S. Steneck, P. Greenfield, E. Gomez, D. R. Harvell, P. F. Sale, A. J. Edwards, K. Caldeira, N. Knowlton, C. M. Eakin, R. Iglesias-Prieto, N. Muthiga, R. H. Bradbury, A. Dubi, and M. E. Hatziolos (18 April 2008) Science320 (5874), 315.
[DOI: 10.1126/science.320.5874.315] |Full Text »|PDF »
LETTERS
Eric L. Peterson, Maria Beger, and Zoe T. Richards (28 March 2008) Science319 (5871), 1759c.
[DOI: 10.1126/science.319.5871.1759c] |Full Text »|PDF »
EDITORIAL
Donald Kennedy (14 December 2007) Science318 (5857), 1695.
[DOI: 10.1126/science.1153230] |Summary »|Full Text »|PDF »
NEWS FOCUS
Christopher Pala (14 December 2007) Science318 (5857), 1719.
[DOI: 10.1126/science.318.5857.1719] |Summary »|Full Text »|PDF »
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