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NewsBREAKTHROUGH OF THE YEAR:
How well did the editors forecast the year's Areas to Watch? The record shows that some of their crystal balls were clouded by wishful thinking. |
Avian influenza. Research on flu drugs, vaccines, and epidemiology flourished in 2006, as did studies of the genetic changes that might turn avian influenza into a pandemic. But tracking the worldwide H5N1 outbreak is still difficult because researchers and countries hoard field samples and viral sequences.
Gravity rules. Gravitational-wave fans will have to wait. The Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory in the United States and the smaller GEO-600 facility in Germany won't publish results until early 2007. Not bad news--just no news.
RNAi-based treatments. The gene-silencing technology boasted promising clinical-trial results in macular degeneration and respiratory syncytial virus, won a Nobel Prize, and enticed drug giant Merck to pay $1.1 billion for a small biotech company focused on RNAi treatments. But safety worries still loom: A hepatitis B study of RNAi in mice reported that dozens of animals died from treatment.
Catching rays. The massive Pierre Auger Observatory in Argentina seems sure to answer fundamental questions about the highest-energy cosmic rays, such as whether their interactions with the afterglow of the big bang limit their energy and whether they originate from point sources in the sky. But not in 2006, as we predicted. Some answers will likely come at a major conference in Merida, Mexico, in July.
Small worlds. As predicted, microbial evolution and ecology emerged among the most exciting areas of biology. Researchers got a better grasp of what a prokaryote species might be, despite promiscuous lateral gene transfer. And it became clear that symbioses involving microbes (bacteria in the human gut, for example) are pervasive and sometimes extreme.
Seconding supersolidity. Two groups reproduced the subtle signal that could be evidence that crystalline helium flows--as predicted. But one group reported that the effect disappeared if the frigid crystal was gently heated and cooled to remove imperfections. That suggests that the crystal itself doesn't budge, but thin layers of liquid flow between crystalline grains. The upshot: Something is happening, but what?
Homing in on high Tc. We can dream, can't we? The 20th anniversary of high-temperature superconductivity passed without any consensus being reached on how the materials carry electricity without resistance at temperatures as high as 138 kelvin. Experimenters are producing exquisitely precise data, but it seems that every theoretical concept has data pointing in its direction.
Bird to watch for. We hoped new sightings would prove that the ivory-billed woodpecker is alive and pecking. But indirect evidence from trees in Florida failed to sway the skeptics, and the original Arkansas sightings of the bird are looking increasingly shaky. Maybe it drowned in a rogue gravitational wave.Science. ISSN 0036-8075 (print), 1095-9203 (online)
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