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Science 29 October 2004:
Vol. 306. no. 5697, pp. 821 - 822
DOI: 10.1126/science.1103025
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Perspectives

PHYSICS:
Ancient Lessons for Our Future Climate

Daniel P. Schrag and Richard B. Alley

Climate models and efforts to explain global temperature changes over the past century suggest that the average global temperature will rise by between 1.5º and 4.5ºC if the atmospheric CO2 concentration doubles. In their Perspective, Schrag and Alley look at records of past climate change, from the last ice age to millions of years ago, to determine whether this climate sensitivity is realistic. They conclude that the climate system is very sensitive to small perturbations and that the climate sensitivity may be even higher than suggested by models.

D. P. Schrag is in the Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA. E-mail: schrag{at}eps.harvard.edu R. B. Alley is in the Department of Geosciences, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA. E-mail: ralley@mcfeely.geosc.psu.edu

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Science. ISSN 0036-8075 (print), 1095-9203 (online)