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Science 11 November 2005:
Vol. 310. no. 5750, p. 939
DOI: 10.1126/science.310.5750.939h
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Simple models are often insufficient for predicting or explaining complex systems such as ecosystems or financial markets, but complex, mechanistic models can be difficult to test and cannot be fully analyzed mathematically. Grimm et al. (p. 987) review several recent advances in simulation modeling in an approach they call pattern-oriented modeling, a general strategy for designing and developing explanatory models of complex systems. Pattern-oriented modeling can predict multiple observed ecological patterns at different levels of organization. This approach can be used to distinguish among alternative model structures, to focus on the most important parameters, and to simplify models when possible.




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Science. ISSN 0036-8075 (print), 1095-9203 (online)